What we know so far, and a list of what-ifs...

We do not yet know how things will play out in the ongoing Gilbert Arenas gun saga. We do know that he has been charged with felony gun possession and that he is expected to plead guilty to one felony and four misdemeanors in D.C. Superior Court later today, according to The Washington Post.

According to Fanhouse, it could still be weeks before Arenas is sentenced, but as this morning's story says, "His attorneys and prosecutors, Tobias said, likely have a deal on what type of penalty Arenas will have to serve, but a judge won't issue a sentence until after a pre-sentencing report is completed."

With Arenas having received a felony charge, the Wizards -- as we've known since this thing blew up -- are within their rights to void his contract, and likely will attempt to do so. We also know that Arenas and the players' union are likely to fight that. Michael Lee and Mike Wise, also in The Post today, teamed up on a story that said Arenas feels betrayed by the organization and that they didn't offer the support they should have when he is at the lowest point of his career. I've been told the same thing by insiders, and that Arenas because of that hurt has even cut off communication with teammates, refusing to respond to their phone calls, voice mails and text messages. It's going to make for a very sticky situation if Arenas is able to avoid jail time and when he is reinstated to the league by David Stern. Say the Wizards aren't successful in their attempt to void the remaining four years, $80 million of Arenas' contract. Then what? Finding a trade partner will be difficult because of the hefty dollar figure. And reaching a buyout on such a large deal also would be difficult.

So, that's what we know at this point. Now for a game of What-If...

Going back to the start of this whole thing, the obvious question is what if Gilbert Arenas had just had the common sense to buy a safe, rather than bring the guns to Verizon Center? Yeah, I think everyone is asking themselves this.

But here's one for you: What if the Wizards were winning? Say everything's hunky dory, Washington comes back from that West Coast trip with a 17-8 record, rather than 8-17. Say Arenas is averaging 29 points and eight assists and is on his way to a fourth All-Star appearance and the Comeback Player of the Year award. What then? Would the world have even known that possibly five guns were in the Wizards' locker room? Two league insiders say "No chance," and "Probably not." Charles Barkley last night on national television also said this wouldn't have gotten out if it was a winning squad.

As I wrote shortly after the initial report of Arenas storing guns in his locker, the Wizards aren't the first team to learn a player has a gun on team property, I'm told. The players are simply told Get that out of here, and receive a stern talking to. This situation is more serious than someone simply carrying a weapon on their person, but the insiders I asked seem to think that although Ernie Grunfeld would have been furious, that he would have huddled everyone together for a tongue lashing and swept it under the rug, and the Wizards would have went on jockeying for position among the Eastern Conference's elite. Now, we don't know that for sure, but you have to wonder. Losing magnifies the ugliness of everything. Blood pressures are higher, tempers are shorter, second, third and fourth chances are harder to come by.

And for another what-if: The Wizards are in fact losing, and this terrible situation did get out to the public. But what if Arenas had proceeded quietly and found a way to deal with his stress in a manner other than jokingly. No finger guns, no "David Stern is mean," no tweeting. Arenas still would be playing. There's a good chance he would be looking at an even better shot of beating jail time.

But none of that happened.

So what if Arenas does receive a felony conviction and jail time? Then what? If it's brief you would think he could resume his playing career, but where? If it's five years, it would seem his days in the NBA are done.

But what if he beats jail time, and the Wizards can't void his contract, can't trade him? Arenas would need to apologize profusely to David Stern, the Wizards organization, and the public. Arenas and Grunfeld would need to have an earnest sit-down and clear up any feelings of betrayal on either side. Then the Wizards still would likely blow up this roster and have to set out to rebuilding with a contrite and wiser Arenas again as the cornerstone.

It's a lot of what-ifs, but for now, the watch-and-wait game continues and it will be a while longer before the answers start to come.